A prediction is a guess with a date on it. Write one down, seal it in a letter, and you have a small experiment. You will not know whether you were right until the day arrives, and that wait is part of the fun.
Why guesses are worth writing down
We make guesses about the future every week, and most of them go nowhere because no one writes them down. A guess written down with a date becomes something you can check. You can see which parts of your picture of the future were accurate, and which parts took you by surprise.
A guess that came true tells you what you already understood about your life. A guess that missed tells you what you did not see. Mark which is which when the letter arrives. Neither one is a verdict on your life.
If you write a similar list each year, the lists will also show you where your attention has moved.
Some research on the future self is relevant here. Hershfield's 2011 review in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences finds that people are more willing to make choices that help a later self when that self feels similar, vivid and positive. It is about choices such as saving, not predictions, so treat it as background, not proof.
Predictions are worth writing for a few reasons:
- They make the future feel closer than an abstract plan does.
- They give you a specific date to look back on.
- They show you what you assume about yourself and your town.
Write specific, dated statements
A vague prediction cannot be checked. “I will be happy” tells you nothing on the day the letter arrives. “By next spring, you will have finished the online course” can be checked with one look at your calendar and your progress.
Give each guess three parts: what will happen, by when, and how you will know. For example: “By next spring, you will have finished the course. The certificate will be in your inbox.” The third part matters most, because it turns a hope into something you can check.
Keep the list to 10 guesses or fewer. A short list is easier to read honestly when it arrives, and the later lines of a long list tend to get vague.
Read the list once before you seal it. Remove any guess that depends on what another person will decide, because you cannot know that from here.
Choose a delivery date that matches the list: the “one year” preset suits near-term guesses, and “choose date” suits anything further away. The email arrives that day, sometime between 8:00 and noon in your time zone. Nothing lands in your inbox when you write it, so keep a copy yourself.
Predict the world and yourself separately
Split your guesses into two lists. The first is about you: your work, your home, the people you see, and your habits. The second is about the world around you, but keep it small and local. Think of your street, your workplace or your city, not national economies or new technology.
The reason is practical. Guesses about markets, health statistics, technology or politics are hard to check honestly, and they quickly turn into commentary. A guess about the route you walk every day is something you can see with your own eyes.
Examples for the local list might be:
- The diner on the corner will still serve breakfast.
- Your street will have one neighbor you know by name.
- The market near you will still be busy on Saturday mornings.
Examples for the personal list might be:
- You will be cooking at home more often than you do now.
- You will have finished the book you keep starting.
Write each line in the second person, as a plain statement with a date. You are not trying to be impressive. You are trying to be checkable.
Notice the predictions that worry you
Some guesses will make you uneasy. You may write a line about a job that worries you or a relationship that has been on your mind. Those lines are worth noticing, but they are not forecasts. They are fears written in the form of a prediction.
Mark each worrying guess with a small symbol, such as a star or an asterisk. Then write what would help if it came true. Keep the help practical: a person to call, or a first step you could take. Tie the help to the worry, so the letter ends with something you can do rather than a warning.
If a worry feels heavy or keeps coming back, talk to someone you trust. If it starts to affect your sleep, your work or your daily life, a doctor or counselor can help. A prediction letter can hold a worry, but it cannot take the place of that support.
A sample prediction letter
Here is a short letter that predicts five years ahead and asks for one check a year from now.
Dear future me,
When this reaches you, you will live somewhere with a smaller kitchen, and you will walk to work past the same newsstand every morning. You will have learned to bake bread that does not need a second try.
I also think the worry about the presentation next spring will turn out smaller than it feels today. If it does, write that down, and say which part you got wrong.
Check one of these guesses a year from now, and tell me which one.
[your name]
The check at the end is what makes the letter useful, and it falls to you: the service sends no reminders, so put the check-in in the letter and in your calendar.
Write it now
Write up to 10 guesses in the form of what will happen, by when, and how you will know. Split them into a list about you and a list about your street or city, and mark any that worry you. Then choose a delivery date, write the check-in date at the top, and write your first guess.
